Sunday, March 22, 2009

Come June


I went to the future in my time machine and this was the only picture I took

The season is wrapping up and things are becoming more clear. The contenders, the players, the match-ups and maybe most importantly the weaknesses. Opposing fans love to bring these up to their rivals in order to plant the seed of uncertainty. I am here to do just that. Don't be too upset though, if I'm mentioning your team in this list it's because they have a chance, albeit it a miracle, one in a million kind of chance for some of you, it's a chance none the less.

EAST:
Orlando Magic


If you're dumb enough to think this is cool, you might be dumb enough to think Orlando can win

The greatest big man in the game right now. He can rebound better than anyone since Ben Wallace in his prime years but he can also score. Is he a leader? Not really, he has too amiable a personality to really drive it home. They lost their starting point guard and brought in a very good option. They have been well coached and they have improved upon last season. This time last year they were slumping big time and they have avoided that even with adversity. They had excuses to fail and are still right on the heals of the defending champs. But they can't beat them in a 7 game series.
Here's why.

Depth Issues

As far as their guards go Alston is a fine starting point guard... But as good as he is playing he can't handle the entire load, especially not in a 7 game series. The eastern conference contenders have a glut of speedy guards that will exploit Anthony Johnson's aging legs. Lue would be a better option as far as speed goes, but he hasn't been used except in garbage time. It also seems to me that Courtney Lee starts to give the illusion of depth. Pietrus should start at the 2 guard and he has proven he can play in Turkoglu's absence. JJ Redick cannot defend anyone. Period.

Perimeter Dependent Offense

They average almost 27 3 pointer attempts a game. This can work against some teams, and only on those teams during the regular season. During the playoffs perimeter defense goes into effect. Without the 3 Orlando is an average team with a great center. Rashard, Hedo, Lee, and many others on this team depend on that shot. The team is basically a 3 point contest with a big rebounder that makes their mistakes forgivable. They won't be able to make that shot with consistency against Boston or Cleveland, and probably won't be able to against lesser competition in the first round.

Leadership Issues


Leader

As I said before Howard isn't much of a leader, he's just too nice. Rafer isn't either. Van Gundy doesn't seem to be much of one either. Although I hate to take Shaq's side on this one, Van Gundy does choke under pressure. People who follow him do find more success. Maybe he can prove me wrong. Remember that one in a million chance I was talking about?

Cleveland Cavaliers


Lebron blowing smoke

Cleveland is the most consistent team in basketball right now. They are winning with regularity and beating teams they should beat and competing every night. Lebron is the best basketball player in the game right now. He has amazing stats and plays hard every night which his team does their best to emulate. He has improved his jump shot and his defense which really helped to complete his already formidable talent. But... he hasn't proven he can win important games. He will most likely be MVP of the regular season but is that all he will ever be, a regular season star. Shades of Tracy McGrady. This isn't their only problem.

Undersized Backcourt

Not much to be said about this really. One guard is 6-1 the other is 6-3. It's only a couple inches but it can mean getting a hand on Ray Allen jump shot or watching it sink through the hoop. That being said Delonte is an excellent shot blocker, but only when he's guarding point guards.

Another Team with Depth Issues

Did you see Joe Smith guarding Leon Powe? Neither did Leon.

Injuries

Just as the Celtics are getting healthy Cleveland is getting hurt. Ben Wallace is out for the time being and may be cleared for practice next week. They desperately need him to guard the front court players Boston will throw at them. Also Wally is down and he gives them a perimeter player but not much defense, might be a blessing.

Lebron Under Pressure

In his first finals appearance he was swept and shot well under 40% for the series. In his battle last year with the Celtics he made only 55 of his 155 shots with mostly single coverage from Pierce. So the question is, who is going to give Lebron his much needed heimlich.

Boston Celtics


One more Blackstone come June

The defending champs won't get 66 wins again. They don't have Posey, or Pj, or some other players that are at home writhing in pain from various injuries. Can they still win. Absolutely. Reasons they won't? That's too easy, that's what everyone has been saying and writing all season. How about reasons on how THEY WILL WIN.

A Starting 5 that Causes Mismatches at Every Position

Kendrick Perkins is as big as a guy you will ever see and the last guy you ever want to be mad at you. He is a strong lumbering defender and enforcer. He has bothered players like Howard, Bynum, and Shaq he is 3rd in the league in Field Goal percentage and in the top ten in blocked shots. He is a an old school center, big and mean. The center on your favorite team is probably scared of him.

Kevin Garnett is one of the best power forwards in the history of the game and he is still hungry. He has changed the way we see the 4 position, he has an amazingly consitent mid range jumper and can defend every position.



And he's also a prick.

Paul Pierce can Shoot 3's, post up, drive to the hoop, and defend. He is eveyr position rolled into one. He creates mismatches no matter who guards him. He has stopped Lebron James and Kobe Bryant in back to back series. He is the reigning finals MVP and has more confidence that maybe any man I've ever seen. He's the second hall of famer on this list and I'm not even done.

Ray Allen is the best pure shooter many of us have ever seen. It seems like every shot is going in. He spreads the floor for the other players and gives them easier shots because of the single coverage. If you over play him he has regained his quickness that he didn't have last year and he's playing like he's 25 again. The drought he had in last years first two rounds will not reoccur.

Rajon Rondo is lightning quick, the only two players that I think might be faster are Barbosa and TJ Ford. He is 5th in the league in assists and one of the best rebounding guards in the league. He is the perfect compliment to the big three.

Depth

Leon Powe is a bruiser. He's tough and he will get rebounds over taller players just based on his superior strength. His stats adjusted for 48 minutes are amazing. He just needs the minutes that PJ received last year and they will be fine.

Stephon Marbury has been passing the ball very well lately amassing tons of assists in minimal minutes off the bench. Much of the rust will have shaken off when the playoffs starts which is important because I want this next guy to be shooting the ball, not handling it.

Eddie House has been shooting 58% from the 3 point line in the past month. That's all I have to say.

Brian Scalebrine can spread the floor, rebound, and defend and will be a welcome return in the next couple weeks.

Big Baby Davis has been playing very well and had a breakout game scoring 24 points off the bench.

Defense

When they are healthy they have the best defense in the league. They make you slow it down no matter what your style is and they force you into the half court. They have great perimeter and interior defenders and everybody is on board with Thibodeau's master plan.

Experience

They've won it last year and while repeating is rare these days this would be the squad to do it. They have better developed young talent, a healthier Ray Allen and a breakout point guard talent who has become one of the leagues elite in Rajon Rondo.

I have absolutely zero bias by the way. (Go Celtics!)

West:

New Orleans


They won't make the finals, but things could be worse


I have this team in the list and I do not have Houston or Denver. You might ask why since both those teams have better records. Well, those teams can't beat San Antonio or LA. To be honest neither can New Orleans, but I had three for the east and now I need three for the west. New Orleans have been great since getting back Tyson Chandler and have won 11 of their last 14 contests. They have every position covered by great diverse talent. They have the best point guard I have ever seen in my life. David West is the best player in the league without his own shoe. Butler and Peja are amazing from the 3 point line. Chandler is a great defender and receiver of perfect Chris Paul Alley oops. They have all this and James Posey off the bench. So what's the problem. They haven't been together all year and it took a hit on their confidence. They have a chance to pull it all together but I don't see them beating LA or San Antonio for these reasons.

Scoring

They have a great shooters and an amazing point guard but it just doesn't produce enough points for them. They defend really well allowing about the same amount of points as the Celtics, but they need to score to compliment their defense and they don't. Hopefully Posey will be able to turn it on during the playoffs and get the extra 10-15 points they need to push through the first couple rounds.

Depth

They have Posey and Armstrong but the rest are players that will be liabilities on the floor, they don't compliment their starting counter parts, they are just worse versions. This was a problem Dallas had when they lost to Golden State. They had depth to a point but they poor man's version on their starters instead of players that introduce a different dynamic or exploit a matchup.

San Antonio


Maybe if I make a weird face they won't publish this photo

A tough team but an older, more banged up version of the championship team two years ago. There has been some positive additions. Roger Mason is having a MIP season and hopefully he wins that award because I think he deserves it. To contribute on an already established team like the Spurs is a great challenege and he deserves recognition for that. George Hill also showed to be a great option in Tony Parker's absence. They decided Bonner was a better option than Oberto and I think they made the right choice there but some things will keep them from the west title.

Age and Injury

Oldest team in the league with an average age of 30. Finley is still productive but Bowen has fallen off this year quite a bit. Tim Duncan seems ageless and I'm sure as always his numbers will sky rocket in the post season. Still though a 7 game series will put a hurt even on a 25 year olds body, these guys in their mid to late 30s are going to be hurting after the first game to a degree. Manu's injury hopefully won't hamper his performance because they really need him at 100% to be competitive with the Lakers. They won this year in San Antonio with Manu and lost when he was injured.

Center Play

Bonner cannot guard Bynum. Even if Bynum is 80% it won't happen. Bonner had 2 rebounds in 21 minutes against him this year and was a minus 19 in the box score. Basically if Bynum is out and if Manu is in, the Spurs still will probably lose.

Los Angeles Lakers


She plays better D than Sasha

This team has the best scorer in basketball history. He can score from anywhere. When he wants to defend he does it very well. He has been passing more and scoring less which has meant more wins. He has a great team mate with Pau Gasol and a great mix of veterans and young energetic players. They have everything it takes to win a championship except.

An Answer for the Speed of Rajon Rondo

Rondo is too fast for the Lakers point guards. On Christmas day Kobe guarded Rondo, and he stopped him from scoring, but Rondo still had 12 assists. Derek Fisher can't guard Rondo, and neither can Farmar. Phil knew this and made a choice. This choice is a fluke because Kobe will not guard Rondo the whole series, it will take too much out of him. Pau is too soft on defense

An Answer for the Strength of Perkins, Powe, and Davis

These are X-factor players and they have the upperhand on the Lakers. These guys dominate weaker players and that is all the Lakers have to offer, especially if Bynum doesn't return at full strength.

Getting Over The Paul Pierce Factor

He matched or exceeded Kobe's play in every game. He forced Kobe to shoot a very poor percentage. He psyched out the whole team with a possible fabrication.

Laker's Under Pressure

This happens.


Sunday, March 1, 2009

The Team that Law Forgot

I hereby move that the NBA team residing in Denver Colorado officially change their name to the Denver Thuggettes. I know what you’re saying out there. “But they’ve been the Nuggets for years! There’s history to their name!” Well, guess what? History no longer matters in a franchise. Want proof? Where are the Seattle Supersonics now? Yeah, that’s what I thought. And I don’t care that they used to mine for gold in Denver. I just don’t. There are no lakes in Los Angeles. Jazz is still illegal in Salt Lake City. I am yet to determine whether there is an inordinate amount of thunder in Oklahoma City. There’s no sanctity to a name anymore.

And now for the reasons why this name works for this team. It is largely a two part argument. Firstly, this team is clearly more than a little thugged out. Let’s face it, this isn’t an organization that has placed a lot of importance on the integrity of it’s players. If you gave me the over/under on whether half of the guys had criminal records, I’d take the over, especially given that a few of them have legal transgressions that have been well documented already. It I were to open up espn.com one of these days and read a headline that stated: “Nuggets Raptors game ends in heartache as Denver player stabs three Toronto players to death,” I honestly wouldn’t be all that surprised. Instead, my reaction would be something along the lines of slowly nodding my head and muttering: “just a matter of time.” Now, the team playing the victim in this example is pretty much interchangeable (although I chose the Raptors as they are largely a bunch of pushovers and I couldn’t picture one guy on that team fighting back if his teammate were suddenly being stabbed at midcourt). However, it really only works with Denver. Not only that, tell me, if you read that headline, is there one player on the Nuggets’ roster that would immediately leap to your mind. I’d say about half of their guys would leap to my mind.


(When this is just the fifth most publicly disreputable figure on your team, you're in trouble.)

But, as post-brawl David Stern would tell you, we can’t be encouraging the type of behavior and fashion choices that the Nuggets consistently display. That is where the suffix “ettes” comes into play. Adding this to the end of the name effectively emasculates the team, rather than lending them undeserved street-cred. Let’s face it, when your team leader’s go-to move in a fight is the sucker punch into the full-on backpedal across the length of the court, your team isn’t actually thug… you just wish it was. When that same player gets caught with pot and makes his buddy take the fall for him, then adds insult to injury by blaming his friends for being bad influences on him, you guys aren’t thug. When your two best big men trade time on the bench with a plethora of injuries, you aren’t thug. When your team’s best effort to start a huge fight with another team full of miscreants is still not considered “the brawl” of the past decade, you aren’t thug. Did I mention Carmelo’s sucker punch? The point is, Thuggettes is an appropriate nomenclature for a team that desperately wants to be considered thug, but consistently falls pathetically short of this goal.


(It's easy to look tough when you're yelling at a guy from the opposite end of the arena.)

It is important that the league act on this quickly, as time is running out. The Denver brass has already made their first smart move in years by trading away the beleaguered Iverson for the upstanding citizen and true team leader that is Chauncey Billups. A few more moves like that and this team will completely lose the identity it has worked so hard to achieve. The name-change must be enacted if only to inspire the front office to now turn around and trade Billups for Jamaal Tinsley.


(Tell me he wouldn't look good in a Denver Thuggettes uniform.)

Of course, we can’t overlook the fact that my proposed name corresponds with the original by way of similar phonetics. As you have heard it said, familiarity breeds contempt, and there is no roster in the NBA more deserving of contempt than your Denver Thuggettes (ok, that whole thing might be a reach, but it was at least a marginally clever one). Let’s make this change happen, folks. For the good of the league, let’s make this change happen together.



On another note: The Pistons have just completed their dismantling of the defending champion Boston Celtics. In Boston. Without Iverson. This makes it two consecutive victories against two of the best teams in the league, both on the opponents’ turf, both without The Answer. Are they a better team without AI? Too early to say but it certainly seems that way. Stay tuned for more on this.